Buckminster Fuller, famous author and visionary architect, once said, "There is no energy crisis, it's only a crisis of ignorance." That statement may seem too firm, but it seems feasible also when it is contemplated. Especially if we look at how often people get stuck just in the chain of daily energy issues and it is urgent, such as scarcity of gesoline, fuel subsidies, or power outages. It is the larger context of structural problems and it is more often overlooked, although the consequences would clearly threaten the balance of the planet and the life of its inhabitants.
Mankind has never confront future challenges related to energy and environmental basic life today. The important question that we must exist in our minds, either as members of society, business, and government, that is how we prepare ourselves or even help shape, and we also welcome the birth of a new energy system which it can serve "more energy, less CO2" or "more more energy, less carbon dioxide. "
There is great inertia in modern energy systems, due to the massive scale and complicated complexity. This made many fundamental changes happening in the world energy system can not easily be understood. In addition, it takes a long time to feel the impact of improvement efforts. But we face increasingly urgent circumstances, and the world can no longer ignore the three serious things related to supply and demand for energy.
Firstly, the increased energy consumption. Densely populated countries, like United States, European Union, China, India, and Indonesia, is entering a phase of economic growth in most need of energy for industrialization, infrastructure development, and increased use of transportation. The increase in demand is bound to stimulate the supply of alternative and improved energy efficiency, but it was not enough to offset the pressure of energy demand in total. Meanwhile, the economy slowed and WE ignore the billions of human life expectancy improved by a policy of reducing energy use is not the politically right answer .
SecondLY, the supply of energy will be hobbled TO pursue demand which it continues to climb. After 2015, increased production of easy oil and gas or oil and gas produced from the field with relative ease will not be able to meet world demand for oil and gas. Coal is abundant in several countries, including Indonesia, but will be hampered by the limited supply of transport infrastructure and environmental degradation. Alternative energy sources such as biofuels, it will become an important energy source, but it also can not completely solve the supply and demand imbalance.
Thirdly, it is the increasingly heavy environmental pressure. Suppose the pattern of consumption of fossil fuels has not changed and the supply can be driven to answer the demand which it continues to climb, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to conditions which it could threaten human survival. Despite the reduction in fossil fuel consumption coupled with a more effective management of CO2, this will not still completely eliminate the challenges associated with climate change. The efforts to maintain carbon dioxide levels as expected in the atmosphere will be more difficult.
If the three main drivers of energy systems of our world today-the demand, supply, and environmental effects, simultaneously experiencing major changes, we are facing a revolutionary and turbulent transition. Therefore, we need to recognize this change to be able to deal with the good. Scenarios are tools which those can help identify structural shifts, and consider possible interactions among different perspectives and possibilities. Scenarios help us to prepare ourselves, shaping, and even become a winner in the inevitable future. To help think about the future of energy, several poiners developed two scenarios of world energy 2050-scramble and blueprints.
Scramble scenario reflects the policies and actions are fixated on short-term energy security of each country. National policy makers more moved by the demands of such apparent direct current energy supply and it is urgent for the country and their allies. Self-focused attention on the supply side must always be prepared, including the negotiation of bilateral agreements and incentives for the development of local sources. Exploitation of coal resources and biofuels are important.
In this scenario, despite calling for energy efficiency and environmental improvements never slack, efforts to realize it really does not do, even delayed into next-generation business. Policy is more efficient energy use and from diversified sources do not really fighting for. Untreated serious environmental action bring the force response to climate change politically. The series of measures are late to continue to become heavy demand pressures which those eventually lead to instability and energy price hikes. This resulted in the slowdown of economic growth, although in the long term economic growth is high.
Blueprints scenario illustrates the dynamics which this originally grew out of various coalitions of interests. This scenario does not necessarily reflect the uniformity of purpose, but woke up on a mixture of concern. It was established by concerns over economic prospects, lifestyle and future world better, to make blossom of the new alliance encouraging a series of actions, both in developed and developing countries. Responses emerged was relatively more timely.
Blueprints scenario is not driven solely by global altruism. Initiatives appear to be rooted in the cities and certain regions which those move to change things. These efforts are then strengthened as the national governments to adjust and assess return policy patchwork which it has been done. The business world is also responding, beginning with the lobby to get the clarity of the rules.
All of these efforts is in energy efficiency, renewable energy development, and better environmental management. Carbon-trading market will be more efficient, thus increasing the greenhouse effect control. Development of energy efficiency and production of electric-powered vehicles are energy efficient to be widely implicated in the transport sector. It is more efficient energy consumption and developing renewable energy to make oil prices more stable and affordable, as well as by energy poor countries.
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